The theme of the first ROV conference in 1983—"A Technology Whose Time Has Come"—pretty well sums up the unmanned undersea vehicle industry during the last 15 years. Not only has it come, it has rocketed into a critical technology for ocean work and exploration in the future.

The technology has even crossed into the bio-mechanical world, where laboratories are working on advanced propulsion and maneuvering mechanisms that mimic fish. The Vorticity Controlled Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (see figure below) being developed by Charles Stark Draper Laboratory is a flexible-hull vehicle that propels and maneuvers like a yellowfin tuna. Whether this unique method of propulsion finds its way into the field remains to be seen, but one fact is unavoidable—advanced robotic systems, many of them anthropomorphic or animal like in design are appearing at an ever increasing rate. And, they appear to be making their way from the research lab into the field in many instances.

However, where unmanned vehicles will go in the future will be driven by one concern– the "bottom line." Offshore, the "need" will drive their integration into future developments, primarily because that will be the only way to get the oil needed in the future—no unmanned systems…no oil…no profits. Bottom line.

The military will continue to spearhead the technology as it seeks more efficient, and often covert, means to perform its missions. Mine countermeasures will be one of the most often discussed issues. However, if the past is any indication of what to expect in the future, the "bottom line" will be higher on more dramatic programs such as satellites, cruise missiles, etc., and MCM will continue to be only a bridesmaid.

Will the governments up their "bottom line" and invest into the world’s future, if not its survival? So far, there has been plenty of talk, but relatively little financial action; at least when compared to other worldly investments. Time will tell if the funding will come, however, don’t count on it—at least not to the level that it is needed. Unfortunately, the exploration of the world’s oceans will remain drastically underfunded.

Luckily, the "bottom line" that will provide the most dramatic impact will be the academic budget. With notoriously little funding in the past, and no expected changes in their financial picture in the future, they will develop the technology with cost effectiveness in mind. Low cost, expendable systems (maybe not low cost for the university) will be developed. With that, the first steps into exploring the world’s oceans will be at hand. As these unmanned underwater systems expand in number and use, the dramatic gains in data and understanding will just add fuel to the fire. But, their acceptance as a cost effective tool by potential users will only be the first step.

The most critical step will be when their loss becomes acceptable. Only when the community can field unmanned systems in numbers that allow acceptable losses will such systems finally reach their potential. This critical step should approach reality within the next 15 years. And, this cost effective approach will also roll over into the LCROV area, where they will continue to expand in acceptance and use throughout the world’s shallower water—and in some cases deep water—environments.

The future is a design problem. The technology is there, or will be, to allow us to perform virtually any task desired underwater. Bud, as discussed above, the use of unmanned underwater systems, whether tethered or autonomous, will be driven by the bottom line. Accordingly, the potential for unmanned underwater systems in the future is under our control. The choice is ours.